COVID-19 outcomes in people living with HIV: peering through the waves

Objective To evaluate clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients infected with HIV, and to compare with a paired sample without HIV infection. Methods This is a substudy of a Brazilian multicentric cohort that comprised two periods (2020 and 2021). Data was obtained through the retrospective review of medical records. Primary outcomes were admission to the intensive care unit, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death. Patients with HIV and controls were matched for age, sex, number of comorbidities, and hospital of origin using the technique of propensity score matching (up to 4:1). They were compared using the Chi-Square or Fisher's Exact tests for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon for numerical variables. Results Throughout the study, 17,101 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized, and 130 (0.76%) of those were infected with HIV. The median age was 54 (IQR: 43.0;64.0) years in 2020 and 53 (IQR: 46.0;63.5) years in 2021, with a predominance of females in both periods. People Living with HIV (PLHIV) and their controls showed similar prevalence for admission to the ICU and invasive mechanical ventilation requirement in the two periods, with no significant differences. In 2020, in-hospital mortality was higher in the PLHIV compared to the controls (27.9% vs. 17.7%;p = 0.049), but there was no difference in mortality between groups in 2021 (25.0% vs. 25.1%;p > 0.999). Conclusions Our results reiterate that PLHIV were at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality in the early stages of the pandemic, however, this finding did not sustain in 2021, when the mortality rate is similar to the control group.

COVID-19 outcomes in people living with HIV: Peering through the waves.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients infected with HIV, and to compare with a paired sample without HIV infection. METHODS: This is a substudy of a Brazilian multicentric cohort that comprised two periods (2020 and 2021). Data was obtained through the retrospective review of medical records. Primary outcomes were admission to the intensive care unit, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death. Patients with HIV and controls were matched for age, sex, number of comorbidities, and hospital of origin using the technique of propensity score matching (up to 4:1). They were compared using the Chi-Square or Fisher's Exact tests for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon for numerical variables. RESULTS: Throughout the study, 17,101 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized, and 130 (0.76%) of those were infected with HIV. The median age was 54 (IQR: 43.0;64.0) years in 2020 and 53 (IQR: 46.0;63.5) years in 2021, with a predominance of females in both periods. People Living with HIV (PLHIV) and their controls showed similar prevalence for admission to the ICU and invasive mechanical ventilation requirement in the two periods, with no significant differences. In 2020, in-hospital mortality was higher in the PLHIV compared to the controls (27.9% vs. 17.7%; p = 0.049), but there was no difference in mortality between groups in 2021 (25.0% vs. 25.1%; p > 0.999). CONCLUSIONS: Our results reiterate that PLHIV were at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality in the early stages of the pandemic, however, this finding did not sustain in 2021, when the mortality rate is similar to the control group.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospital-manifested COVID-19 among Brazilians.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the clinical characteristics and outcomes of admitted patients with the hospital- versus community-manifested COVID-19 and to evaluate the risk factors related to mortality in the first population. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included consecutive adult patients with COVID-19, hospitalized between March and September 2020. The demographic data, clinical characteristics, and outcomes were extracted from medical records. Patients with hospital-manifested COVID-19 (study group) and those with community-manifested COVID-19 (control group) were matched by the propensity score model. Logistic regression models were used to verify the risk factors for mortality in the study group. RESULTS: Among 7,710 hospitalized patients who had COVID-19, 7.2% developed symptoms while admitted for other reasons. Patients with hospital-manifested COVID-19 had a higher prevalence of cancer (19.2% vs 10.8%) and alcoholism (8.8% vs 2.8%) than patients with community-manifested COVID-19 and also had a higher rate of intensive care unit requirement (45.1% vs 35.2%), sepsis (23.8% vs 14.5%), and death (35.8% vs 22.5%) (P <0.05 for all). The factors independently associated with increased mortality in the study group were increasing age, male sex, number of comorbidities, and cancer. CONCLUSION: Hospital-manifested COVID-19 was associated with increased mortality. Increasing age, male sex, number of comorbidities, and cancer were independent predictors of mortality among those with hospital-manifested COVID-19 disease.

Assessment of risk scores to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

Objectives: To assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score). Materials and methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results: ABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693-0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score. Conclusion: ABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.

Myocardial Injury and Prognosis in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Brazil: Results From The Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. / Lesão Miocárdica e Prognóstico em Pacientes Hospitalizados com COVID-19 no Brasil: Resultados do Registro Nacional de COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 are important aspects of the disease's pathogenesis and prognosis. Evidence on the prognostic role of troponin and myocardial injury in Latin American hospitalized COVID-19 patients is still scarce. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate myocardial injury as independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and invasive mechanical ventilation support in hospitalized patients, from the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. METHODS: This cohort study is a substudy of the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry, conducted in 31 Brazilian hospitals of 17 cities, March-September 2020. Primary outcomes included in-hospital mortality and invasive mechanical ventilation support. Models for the primary outcomes were estimated by Poisson regression with robust variance, with statistical significance of p<0.05. RESULTS: Of 2,925 patients (median age of 60 years [48-71], 57.1% men), 27.3% presented myocardial injury. The proportion of patients with comorbidities was higher among patients with cardiac injury (median 2 [1-2] vs. 1 [0-2]). Patients with myocardial injury had higher median levels of brain natriuretic peptide, lactate dehydrogenase, creatine phosphokinase, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein than patients without myocardial injury. As independent predictors, C-reactive protein and platelet counts were related to the risk of death, and neutrophils and platelet counts were related to the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation support. Patients with high troponin levels presented a higher risk of death (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.60-2.58) and invasive mechanical ventilation support (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.57-2.23), when compared to those with normal troponin levels. CONCLUSION: Cardiac injury was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation support in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

FUNDAMENTO: As complicações cardiovasculares da COVID-19 são aspectos importantes da patogênese e do prognóstico da doença. Evidências do papel prognóstico da troponina e da lesão miocárdica em pacientes hospitalizados com COVID-19 na América Latina são ainda escassos. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar a lesão miocárdica como preditor independente de mortalidade hospitalar e suporte ventilatório mecânico em pacientes hospitalizados, do registro brasileiro de COVID-19. MÉTODOS: Este estudo coorte é um subestudo do registro brasileiro de COVID-19, conduzido em 31 hospitais brasileiros de 17 cidades, de março a setembro de 2020. Os desfechos primários incluíram mortalidade hospitalar e suporte ventilatório mecânico invasivo. Os modelos para os desfechos primários foram estimados por regressão de Poisson com variância robusta, com significância estatística de p<0,05. RESULTADOS: Dos 2925 pacientes [idade mediana de 60 anos (48-71), 57,1%], 27,3% apresentaram lesão miocárdica. A proporção de pacientes com comorbidades foi maior nos pacientes com lesão miocárdica [mediana 2 (1-2) vs. 1 (0-20)]. Os pacientes com lesão miocárdica apresentaram maiores valores medianos de peptídeo natriurético cerebral, lactato desidrogenase, creatina fosfoquinase, N-terminal do pró-peptídeo natriurético tipo B e proteína C reativa em comparação a pacientes sem lesão miocárdica. Como fatores independentes, proteína C reativa e contagem de plaquetas foram relacionados com o risco de morte, e neutrófilos e contagem de plaquetas foram relacionados ao risco de suporte ventilatório mecânico invasivo. Os pacientes com níveis elevados de troponina apresentaram um maior risco de morte (RR 2,03, IC95% 1,60-2,58) e suporte ventilatório mecânico (RR 1,87;IC95% 1,57-2,23), em comparação àqueles com níveis de troponina normais. CONCLUSÃO: Lesão cardíaca foi um preditor independente de mortalidade hospitalar e necessidade de suporte ventilatório mecânico em pacientes hospitalizados com COVID-19.

Mechanical ventilation and death in pregnant patients admitted for COVID-19: a prognostic analysis from the Brazilian COVID-19 registry score.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of clinical prognosis of pregnant COVID-19 patients at hospital presentation is challenging, due to physiological adaptations during pregnancy. Our aim was to assess the performance of the ABC2-SPH score to predict in-hospital mortality and mechanical ventilation support in pregnant patients with COVID-19, to assess the frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and characteristics of pregnant women who died. METHODS: This multicenter cohort included consecutive pregnant patients with COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals, from April/2020 to March/2022. Primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and the composite outcome of mechanical ventilation support and in-hospital mortality. Secondary endpoints were pregnancy outcomes. The overall discrimination of the model was presented as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Overall performance was assessed using the Brier score. RESULTS: From 350 pregnant patients (median age 30 [interquartile range (25.2, 35.0)] years-old]), 11.1% had hypertensive disorders, 19.7% required mechanical ventilation support and 6.0% died. The AUROC for in-hospital mortality and for the composite outcome were 0.809 (95% IC: 0.641-0.944) and 0.704 (95% IC: 0.617-0.792), respectively, with good overall performance (Brier = 0.0384 and 0.1610, respectively). Calibration was good for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, but poor for the composite outcome. Women who died had a median age 4 years-old higher, higher frequency of hypertensive disorders (38.1% vs. 9.4%, p < 0.001) and obesity (28.6% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.025) than those who were discharged alive, and their newborns had lower birth weight (2000 vs. 2813, p = 0.001) and five-minute Apgar score (3.0 vs. 8.0, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ABC2-SPH score had good overall performance for in-hospital mortality and the composite outcome mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Calibration was good for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, but it was poor for the composite outcome. Therefore, the score may be useful to predict in-hospital mortality in pregnant patients with COVID-19, in addition to clinical judgment. Newborns from women who died had lower birth weight and Apgar score than those who were discharged alive.

Development and validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19, and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, and to assess the incidence of AKI and KRT requirement. METHODS: This study is part of a multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. A total of 5212 adult COVID-19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. Variable selection was performed using generalised additive models (GAM), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. Accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: The median age of the model-derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47-70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalisation. The temporal validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in-hospital mortality. The geographic validation cohort had similar age and sex; however, this cohort had higher rates of ICU admission, AKI, need for KRT and in-hospital mortality. Four predictors of the need for KRT were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male sex, higher creatinine at hospital presentation and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC 0.929, 95% CI 0.918-0.939) and validation (temporal AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.911-0.941; geographic AUROC 0.819, 95% CI 0.792-0.845) cohorts and good overall performance (Brier score: 0.057, 0.056 and 0.122, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator ( https://www.mmcdscore.com/ ). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalised COVID-19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.

COVID-19 and isolation: Risks and implications in the scenario of new variants.

With the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2, questions about transmissibility, vaccine efficacy, and impact on mortality are important to support decision-making in public health measures. Modifications related to transmissibility combined with the fact that much of the population has already been partially exposed to infection and/or vaccination, have stimulated recommendations to reduce the isolation period for COVID-19. However, these new guidelines have raised questions about their effectiveness in reducing contamination and minimizing impact in work environments. Therefore, a collaborative task force was developed to review the subject in a non-systematic manner, answering questions about SARS-CoV-2 variants, COVID-19 vaccines, isolation/quarantine periods, testing to end the isolation period, and the use of masks as mitigation procedures. Overall, COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing severe illness and death but are less effective in preventing infection in the case of the Omicron variant. Any strategy that is adopted to reduce the isolation period should take into consideration the epidemiological situation of the geographical region, individual clinical characteristics, and mask for source control. The use of tests for isolation withdrawal should be evaluated with caution, due to results depending on various conditions and may not be reliable.

Predictors of venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients: results of the COVID-19 Brazilian Registry.

Previous studies that assessed risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in COVID-19 patients have shown inconsistent results. Our aim was to investigate VTE predictors by both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches, due to their potential complementarity. This cohort study of a large Brazilian COVID-19 Registry included 4120 COVID-19 adult patients from 16 hospitals. Symptomatic VTE was confirmed by objective imaging. LR analysis, tree-based boosting, and bagging were used to investigate the association of variables upon hospital presentation with VTE. Among 4,120 patients (55.5% men, 39.3% critical patients), VTE was confirmed in 6.7%. In multivariate LR analysis, obesity (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.02); being an ex-smoker (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.01); surgery ≤ 90 days (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.14-4.23); axillary temperature (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.22-1.63); D-dimer ≥ 4 times above the upper limit of reference value (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.26-3.67), lactate (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), C-reactive protein levels (CRP, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18); and neutrophil count (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.005-1.075) were independent predictors of VTE. Atrial fibrillation, peripheral oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SF) ratio and prophylactic use of anticoagulants were protective. Temperature at admission, SF ratio, neutrophil count, D-dimer, CRP and lactate levels were also identified as predictors by ML methods. By using ML and LR analyses, we showed that D-dimer, axillary temperature, neutrophil count, CRP and lactate levels are risk factors for VTE in COVID-19 patients.

[Social distancing as protection factor against COVID-19 in a non-metropolitan area in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, BrazilLas medidas de distanciamiento social como factor de protección contra la COVID-19 en el interior de Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil]. / Medidas de distanciamento social como fator de proteção contra a COVID-19 no interior do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a non-metropolitan area (Vale do Rio Pardo) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and determine the association between seroprevalence and adherence to social distancing measures. METHOD: For the present population-based, cross-sectional study, data were collected in four stages from August to October 2020. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was assessed using an IgG/IgM rapid test. Demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and behavioral data were also collected, with administration of a three-question survey to determine adherence to social distancing measures with a focus on the level of social distancing practiced by participants, their routine activities, and circulation of people in the home. The association between sociodemographic data and social distancing was assessed using the chi-square test for linear trends in proportions, and the association between social distancing and seroprevalence was assessed using Poisson regression (95% confidence interval [95%CI]; P< 0.05). RESULTS: Of 4 252 tested and interviewed participants, 11.8% (95%CI: 10.8; 12.8) did not adhere to social distancing measures. The prevalence of a positive rapid test was 4.7% in participants who did not practice social distancing and 1.9% in participants who adhered to social distancing measures (P< 0.05). The variables male sex, age 20 to 59 years, having completed high school, monthly family income ranging from R$ 3 136.00 to R$ 6 270.00, and living in rural areas were associated with non-adherence to social distancing (P< 0.05). Adherence to all social distancing measures provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection (prevalence ratio: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.19; 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate a reduction in seroprevalence with the adherence to social distancing measures.

OBJETIVO: Investigar la seroprevalencia del SARS-CoV-2 en la zona del Vale do Rio Pardo (Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil), y analizar la relación entre la seroprevalencia y el cumplimiento de las medidas de distanciamiento social por parte de la población. MÉTODO: Este estudio transversal basado en la población comprendió cuatro etapas de recopilación domiciliaria de datos entre agosto y octubre del 2020. La seroprevalencia se evaluó con la prueba rápida de anticuerpos IgM e IgG. Además, se recopilaron datos demográficos, socioeconómicos, clínicos y comportamentales por medio de un cuestionario de tres preguntas sobre el cumplimiento de las medidas de distanciamiento social, centrado en el grado de distanciamiento social que la persona entrevistada lograba tener, la rutina de las actividades de la persona entrevistada y la circulación de personas en el hogar. La relación entre los datos sociodemográficos y la práctica de distanciamiento social se evaluó con la prueba del ji cuadrado para determinar la tendencia lineal y la heterogeneidad de las proporciones, y la relación entre el distanciamiento social y la seroprevalencia se evaluó con el modelo de regresión de Poisson (intervalo de confianza de 95% [IC95%]; P< 0,05). RESULTADOS: De las 4 252 personas que se entrevistaron y a las que se les realizó la prueba, 11,8% (IC95%: 10,8; 12,8) no cumplían el distanciamiento social. La prevalencia de la realización de la prueba rápida con reactivo fue de 4,7% entre quienes no cumplían el distanciamiento social y de 1,9% entre quienes cumplían con esa medida (P< 0,05). Las variables relacionadas con el sexo masculino, el grupo etario de 20 a 59 años, la escolaridad de nivel medio, los ingresos familiares mensuales de R$ 3 136,00 a R$ 6 270,00 y la residencia en zonas urbanas guardaron relación con el incumplimiento del distanciamiento social (P< 0,05). El cumplimiento con todas las medidas de distanciamiento social fue un factor de protección contra la infección por SARS-CoV-2 (razón de prevalencia: 0,37; IC95%: 0,19; 0,73). CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados indican una reducción de la seroprevalencia a causa de las medidas de distanciamiento social.

Prevalence of symptoms of COVID-19 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul: results of a population-based study with 18,000 participants

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prevalence of reports of symptoms of COVID-19 among individuals with and without antibodies and identify those with greater capability to predict the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. METHODS The study uses data collected in phases 5 to 8 of Epicovid-19-RS. The presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was evaluated by a rapid test. The occurrence of cough, fever, palpitations, sore throat, difficulty breathing, changes in taste and smell, vomiting, diarrhea, body pain, shaking, and headache since March 2020 was also evaluated. Then, the capability to predict the evaluated symptoms concerning the presence of antibodies was calculated. RESULTS A total of 18,000 individuals were interviewed and 181 had antibodies against COVID-19 in phases 5 to 8. The proportion of asymptomatic individuals was 19.9% among participants with antibodies and 49.7% among those without antibodies. All symptoms were reported more frequently by individuals with antibodies. The division of the prevalence of symptoms among individuals with antibodies by the prevalence among individuals without antibodies showed the following prevalence ratios: for changes in smell or taste (9.1), fever (4.2), tremors (3.9), breathing difficulty (3.2) and cough (2.8 times). Anosmia and fever were the symptoms with a greater capability to predict the presence of antibodies. CONCLUSION The prevalence of symptoms was higher among individuals with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. The proportion of asymptomatic individuals was low. Altered smell or taste and fever were the symptoms that most predict the presence of antibodies. These results can help to identify probable cases, contributing to the clinical diagnosis and screening of patients for testing and isolation guidance in positive cases, especially in scenarios of the scarcity of diagnostic COVID-19 tests.

COVID-19 seroprevalence in military police force, Southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Limited data is available regarding the frequency of COVID-19 in populations that are highly exposed to SARS-CoV-2. In this cross-section study we evaluated COVID-19 seroprevalence in military police forces of 10 major cities in Rio Grande do Sul, South of Brazil. METHODS: Sampling was randomly performed in clusters, in respect to the number of professionals at service per city and military unit. Research subjects were evaluated on July 23, 2020 (first wave peak in Brazil). Clinical information was obtained, and venous blood was taken for ELISA testing (IgA, and IgG antibodies). Sample size consisted of 1,592 military workers (33.6% of study population). They were mostly man (81.2%) and young (median 34 years-old). Most had been asymptomatic (75.3%) during pandemic, and 27.5% reported close contact with COVID-19 cases (after a median time of 21 days). Antibodies were detected in 3.3% of the participants, mostly IgA (2.7%), and IgG (1.7%). After 3 weeks, 66.7% of IgA and IgG results turned negative, in addition to 78.3% and 100% of borderline IgA and IgG results, respectively. CONCLUSION: The seroprevalence of COVID-19 amongst military police was at least 3.4 higher than the findings of other studies performed in the general population, in the same cities and dates. Most detectable antibodies were of IgA class, which implies recent exposure. Asymptomatic people were more prone to have negative antibody titters in the second run.